You could say it’s 2016 again. But this time it’s worse. It’s worse because back then we could only really guess what a Trump presidency would do. Now we know. And beyond the presidency, the Republican Party now controls the Senate, Congress and has a conservative majority in the Supreme Court. Whatever you think of Trump, Projects 2025 is on its way to reality. This is frankly terrifying. Trump is possibly cognitively impaired, but he is a useful idiot for a long-term conservative project that seeks to reshape the US and in doing so rest of the world. This matters to everyone. I see some folk are already framing this as a multigenerational issue as it may take decades to unpick and rollback what will happen over the next four years. I just want to provide some other longer term perspectives. In my humble opinion what we are seeing is the progressive decline of the American empire.
Trump successfully convinced a large number of Americans that the USA was failing. Failing on borders, failing on projecting power, failing to protect good jobs and hard working families. These are all ultimately arguments that the USA was facing not just decline but terminal decline. His rhetoric – beyond the spite, hate, misogyny, racism, fascism – amped up this notion of existential threat that he alone – as a classic strongman – would be able to fend off. It worked. As of typing it looks like his has put in a stronger performance than 2016. He may win the popular vote.
Before the Democratic Party autopsy gets into full swing, it’s vital that we listen to these messages of decline and failure. The thing is, in some important respects I think they capture vital issues. The US is in decline as an imperial power. There are many reasons for that. All I can talk about here is fossil fuels and the power they generate. Fossil fuels are absolutely central to the development of US military and economic power. Much was made of Biden’s IRA and acceleration of renewables. But it was under Biden that US regained the world’s leading oil producer spot. US economic power continues to depend on the petrodollar. This underpins the vast budget deficits that fund the world’s largest military (in 2022 US military spending was $877 billion which was more than the defence budgets of the next 10 countries combined).
Biden didn’t change that anymore than Obama or Clinton did, or Harris would. In that respect Trump is plus ça change. But this is why Trump’s political project and that of the Republican Party is doomed. Fossil fuels are on their way out. Not fast enough to limit to below 2°C, but they are going. They are going because of simple economics – solar is so much cheeper, geopolitics – the rise of China’s economic & political power is driving renewable deployment, and yes climate change. Warming is going to continue. Things are going to get worse. This will increase political pressure. So politicians will be able to call for faster mitigation. But it will also in a very direct way threaten fossil fuel infrastructure because these systems are very vulnerable to climate change. e.g. thermal coal plants that shut down because of heatwave. And let’s just zoom out a little more.
State subsidies of fossil fuels are around $1.5trillion. If we add in environmental costs then much higher, perhaps $7trillion. These subsidies need to increase in order to just keep up given rise of renewable systems and climate impacts. It seems the US is in a race to the bottom with Saudi Arabia. The reasoning is that the fossil fuel producing nations that persist will be those that can pump oil and gas at the very lowest costs. But that’s compared to other producing nations – not renewables. At some point oil and gas production will become unsupportable. If the US has not transitioned by then, then it’s done. Much is made of knowledge economies and AI. Alas, so much of that is bluster and bullish*t. Neither Republican or Democratic Party shows any acknowledgment of this terminal decline. The GOP is different in that it has much more appetite to double down. That will accelerate the decline in that the correction from overshoot will be faster, the collapse harder & more destructive. I’m sure some GOP political strategists think that and I’m sure they don’t give a **** (anymore they give a **** about reproductive rights). Right now, the music plays.
The music is old time hits. A call back to a time of Pax Americana. And so they continue to dance. They dance around the issues that drive American decline. This does not mean the USA is doomed. While the end of fossil fuels is inevitable, there remain political choices.
If we want to avoid catastrophic climate change, then we need to end not just fossil fuel, but also hospice the corporations, politicians and nations that are kept alive by them. Rebirth, renewal, reimagining is what’s needed now. Let’s start politics there and see what melodies arise.
